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Coronavirus or COVID-19

In December of 2019, a number of cases of unexplained viral pneumonia were documented in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. It was later determined to be a coronavirus, which is the same family of viruses as SARS and MERS. It was subsequently called COVID-19 by the World Health Organization (WHO). At the time of writing, it has spread to 187 countries, areas or territories across the world. It is present on all continents with the exception of Antarctica.

How did this start?

Coronaviruses are a family of zoonotic diseases – viruses that are transmitted from animals to humans – that cause illnesses that range from mild to fatal. There have been two previous coronavirus outbreaks in recent history. The first was Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV) which was first reported in 2002 and killed 744 out of 8,098 cases reported across 17 countries. The second was Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV), which was first reported in 2012 and has killed 860 out of 2,500 cases reported across 21 countries.

The current coronavirus outbreak was originally centered around a wet market in Wuhan, which is a location where hundreds of different species of animals are kept and sold. These markets have been the centre of many different outbreaks in the past. The current research points to the virus originating in bats then transferring to an intermediary host, a pangolin, where it subsequently jumped to humans.

How to avoid COVID-19

Each day scientists learn more about the virus and how it is transmitted between people. Currently, the scientists believe that the virus primarily transfers in a droplet form when an infected person coughs or sneezes. These droplets can effectively travel up to 6 feet.  This is why maintaining a social distance from other people is so critical.

There is also a growing body of evidence that people that are asymptomatic – those that don’t have any symptoms – can actually transmit the virus. This is severely hindering public health efforts to contain the outbreak, as methods such as temperate screening are potentially ineffective. However, the WHO has recently considered emerging evidence that the virus may actually be able to survive in the air under certain circumstances. This would require healthcare workers to take on airborne precautions, with the biggest difference being that workers would now require to use n95 masks and patients should be placed into negative isolation rooms.

The best defense against coronavirus currently for the general public is to stay isolated, wash hands vigorously and refrain from touching the face.

How COVID-19 compares to the flu and H1N1

The last pandemic was H1N1, which occurred in 2009. The virus is estimated to have infected 1.4 billion people, and killed between 151,700 and 575,400 people, according to the CDC. The mortality rate of H1N1 was estimated to be around 0.02%, compared to 2% for COVID-19. H1N1 also tended to affect the young more so than the old, with 80% of deaths reported in people under 65. This was very strange for a flu, as generally it tends to target the elderly. COVID-19 is much more deadly in those 65 and older, along with people with pre-existing conditions.

The biggest difference between COVID-19 and flu is that COVID-19 is much more contagious. Scientists typically determine how contagious a disease is by determining its R naught, or R0, which is the measure of people that each infected individual spreads the disease to. The R0 for COVID-19 is 2-2.5, which is substantially higher than the R0 of 1.3 for the seasonal flu. It is also more deadly than the flu as well. The flu is estimated to have a fatality rate of 0.1%, compared to the 2% for COVID-19

The economic implications

As countries begin to implement quarantines, shutter non-essential services and close borders the world economy has come to a standstill. Whole industries, such as the airline and cruise industry, have shut down and are on the verge of bankruptcy. Unemployment is expected to increase dramatically in the coming weeks as more employers are forced to lay off workers. Governments around the world are racing to contain the fallout with a massive fiscal and monetary stimulus. The US alone is proposing a total of 1.8 trillion to be spent on stimulus.

Unemployment will rise dramatically

The US Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard stated that he sees U.S. unemployment hitting 30% in the coming months. If this prediction comes true, the rate would be much higher than during the worst months of the great recession of 2008. He also predicted that US GDP may plunge upwards of 50%. To help combat this, Congress is proposing sending many American adults checks of $1,200 and also expanding unemployment benefits.

The bailouts

The airline industry is now requesting a 50 billion dollar bailout from the US government. Boeing – the largest US exporter – believes that the aerospace manufacturing sector requires “A minimum of 60 billion in access to public and private liquidity, including loan guarantees, for the aerospace manufacturing industry”. This is in addition to the $150 billion planned to be spent on other distressed sectors of the economy by the Trump administration.

 Sharp recession with a quick rebound

The current hope though is that with the right amount of stimulus, the economy should rebound rapidly in the second half of the year. In a poll of 15 economists, 9 of them believe that by the third quarter of 2020 the economy should be expanding again, with the worst of the recession behind us.